Shhhhh don't tell anyone but SPX back positive for the year as of the time stamp of this post.
It is not crystal clear why the rally off the announcement is so big but I'll be happy if it sticks.
This all circles back to the market has been behaving well even with the little dip we had and why I don't want to make extreme bets to try to guess when a big turn will come even though I do expect a big turn. Small tweaks yes, big bets no.
21 comments:
Where are the posters who are so bearish and 50% cash at? Looks like they may not come along for the ride back to new highs.
i hope for their sakes they are less than 50% cash which I think of as extreme.
Well at least one bear is here. I bought put options to hedge about 80 percent of my holdings.
I have no idea if the market is going up or down in the near term, but the economy certainly looks like its slowing. If the economy will continue to slow, then the market will follow. If not then I will lose a few percent on my money.
I have no idea why there was such a big jump up-- maybe the indexes passed a resistance and then momentum players jumped on.
But still here.
G
Now don't go and ruin it by posting another video entry telling us how much of a hot streak you are on.
:)
I think the jump comes from the fact that the subprime mess has stabilized a bit and its effects have been fairly localized. If the Fed had dropped rates and said that they were really concerned about subprime, we'd be singing a different tune. But for now, consensus seems to be that the subprime issue won't be far reaching. Those in the thick of it will get hit bad, those on the side will be nicked up a bit - but the rest of the market won't be affected. Interest rates are just to low for a few bad loans to bring the economy to a halt.
I have to admit that I agreed with Kudlow's discussion (on panel with one of my fav's Liz Anne Saunders (sp).
I never fail to be surprised by the market's reaction.
Re subprime--we have 2 quarters for the financials to have their come to Jesus conversation with the markets--kind of like MOT just had!
Perhaps the euphoria will abate tomorrow. Perhaps I'm terminally negative. Oh...and Herman Miller (commercial furniture manufacturer)--my market bellweather (having spent 10 years in the furniture to include a recession) was halted and subsequently hammered after hours.
That's an industry that has it tough on two fronts (1) economy slowing--long planning and about a 6-8wk lead time to mftr; (2) inexpensive Chinese imports.
Rather amusing, the market goes up a couple days and the bullish nabobs natter away like mad, then the market goes down and they disappear while the bearish nabobs attempt to seize their 15 minutes of fame before they abscond in their turn.
Not the greatest show never watched but it does serve to while away a bit of time until the market finds some direction I suppose.
I was going to post a few remarks on bearish comments, but my remarks would be about as boring as theirs - similar to an editorial in Pravda.
I am enjoying this vibrant market, and while most were focused on the negative, I decided to take some time to get a handle on both well-known and obscure alternative energy and energy conservation companies here and abroad. Regardless of the
politics (and politics is taking the place of science in the global warming trade), there is a lot of money to be made in well-researched individual stocks (not ETFs, yet)involved with global warming themes. Many micro-cap and foreign stocks have yet to be discovered even though they have recently developed proprietary technology that is worth its weight in gold (or CO2 credits).
I believe this sector will trump any downturn from sub-prime panic or a mild/moderate recession.
I went to those lazy portfolios. I choose a few. When the end of day data comes I'm going to see how they've done ytd and one yr out against the russell 3000. If a mutual fund is involved which is often the case, the data will reflect dividends. Also, I posted my own port on oct 18th...as i recollect..if it's brilliant i'll tell ya. Using my fidelity platform I can eyeball some etfs: vti/.8;vxf/3.1;efa/2.0;vnq/3.9;and icf/4.1. This seemed to be typical of the short broad lazy ports. Equal weighted: 2.78%ytd. All you bulls out there. If you can accept that as a no brainer port benchmark, how did you do? p.s. I've been a cautious bear. Hussman, yesterday was 1.21%ytd. Curious to hear how the diversifed ports held up, but one point to consider is that just as the prior correction was relatively small, i'm not sure it's prudent to be thinking that holding on has been all that productive, at least not yet. I've been scaling in,but probably will always have 20-30 percent in fixed income. I'm retired. Ytd:2.8
Leisa, why do you think MLHR down so much in after hours? That wasn't a terrible miss, by .02?
Seems not in keeping with today's euphoric short squeeze and near brush with 5.50% fed funds rate.
Anyone happen to see what the currency traders did while the equities markets went hog wild? Sold the dollar hard. Hat tip to bearmountainbull.com
Anon 11:56am, I am 50% cash and 2:1 short:long. You betcha I'm concerned. Probably gonna lighten up on the short side. I haven't seen anywhere that I have been happy to place my cash. But after today, looks like gold and miners will be just fine.
I'm pretty sure the intermediate bottom is in and we're on our way to new highs (but wouldn't be surprised to see some weakness over the next week or so). We had pretty much the perfect set of tea leaves on this go 'round and I'm enjoying it.
Goefert points out that today was the second day this month where up volume beat down volume by more than 9-to-1. The 37th instance since 1950 - 3 months after the S&P was up three months later 83% of the time by an average of +6.0%.
All you small fry retail investors got caught leaning short today and you all paid for it.
2xlongleveraged
didn't we have a 9-1 downside day and aren't the numbers about being down after one of those just as compelling as you cite for going up?
more conflicting data maybe? or am I incorrect about a 9-1 down day.
Not making a call either just wondering if any of these indicators lose some relevance here.
re: 9-1 up day today.
i just posted this article on the ^IXIC board.
anyways, fwiw. i found this interesting. not even sure if i can do a link here or not. here we go!!! lol
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/mark-hulbert-rare-bullish-technical/story.aspx?guid=%7B044DCFB1%2D41B2%2D469D%2D81C4%2D5F47257C268E%7D
diva
MattyP that video you refer to was pure coincidence and more about my Red Sox fan's view of these types of things (2004 notwithstanding).
Diva, that probably won't work but this will.
Thanks for leaving the link.
Can't help but wonder... what Uncle Ben thought on his drive home today, when his Gentex electronic rear view mirror replaced the compass alpha with a "Game Over" message.
I was up almost 2% on the day overall. The remaining QID was a drag. Thank you BQI.
I was up 3% today on the internets.
Roger said; “Didn't we have a 9-1 downside day and aren't the numbers about being down after one of those just as compelling as you cite for going up?
…more conflicting data maybe? or am I incorrect about a 9-1 down day.”
Roger, you have a partial understanding of the “UP/Down Volume Indicator.” Originally discovered decades ago by Lowry’s Reports, then written about in Martin Zweig’s book “Winning on Wall Street” (1986) chapter 5, the Nine To One Up Day has a much larger probability of predicting a bull market than a Nine to one Down Day has of predicting a bear.
The problem here, as with all indicators, we’re dealing with probabilities, not certainties.
Even worse, there could be more up or down volume bursts to come, changing the market interpretation as the new information comes in. It won’t be clear until a bit more time passes, then we’ll have the advantage of hindsight.
So, can it be useful? Well, yes, the indicator attempts to predict the broad market 3,6,9, 12 months into the future. It’s worth waiting a few weeks before issuing a buy signal, just to see how things play out. The Up Volume Indicator is not a hot, short term, trend following forecast.
I'm a bear who ate his Shorts today, and admit it. I kept one short alive against EM stocks. My longs are all fine and in foreign currency stocks/funds. I was 2:1 short/long till today. The dollar declining again makes up for the pain of losing out to euphoria in US. We'll live to fight another day - it's a great game but nobody can fight the Fed when they crank up the money machine.
Yes, yes, shuuut.....I have found this site which posts breakout plays, and had very good ones yesterday. Yehaaaa, nice day yesterday.
http://tradenote.blogspot.com/
Momo Fader re: They missed on both the top line and the bottom line. .02 per share may not seem like much but depending on the market environment, those seemingly marginal misses are gargantuan.
I'm going to try to listen to the call today. Commercial office furniture is a nice canary in the coal mine. I spent 10 years in commercial office furniture--highly cyclical. That's why you have to look at order flow and backlog. If order flow has slowed and backlog has declined, that it is pretty reliable tell that corp's are being tightfisted about their capex.
I would never rely on a single indicator, but there are several others with good track records of indicating an intermediate term up leg:
- Put/Call Ratio - Total and Equity-only - 10 day moving average
-AAII Bull Ratio - 4 wk moving average
- Commitment of Traders: Commercial Traders in Equity Index Futures
- Public Short Sales Ratio
- VIX Transform Indicator
- SPY Liquidity Premium 10 day moving average
- Rydex Bull Fund & Bear Fund Asset Flow
- S&P 500 above it's 75 and 200 day moving averages.
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