There is a post on Seeking Alpha about the portfolio put forth by Marvin Appel in his book. I touched on this once before.
The portfolio calls for;
- S&P 500 20% (SPY)
- REITs 20% (ICF)
- Small Cap Value 10% (IWN)
- Investment Grade Bonds 30% (AGG)
- Cash 30%
Clearly, as with any type of all weather concept, there are gaps but there are positives too. As some of the comments on the SA post note there is no foreign exposure and no natural resource exposure. I have not read the book but the post gives me the impression than these segments of the market are covered elsewhere in the book than from this one excerpt.
A positive is the recognition that small cap value is an important asset class and clearly anyone could implement this and rebalance it. I wonder if the large reliance on REITs because of how they have performed in recent times might be a mistake going forward. I think 20% in something this narrow is a lot. It is much more exposure than I have ever thought about using and as some readers have pointed out recently, REITs are looking pricey the most historical measures.
The yield of this mix is 1.95% (per Morningstar) which is not that high given only 30% is in stocks (here I am excluding the REITs). I am not sure if that number takes in the yield from cash or not. If not, assuming 5% on the $30,000 the overall yield would then go to 3.45%. Again, only 30% is in regular equities so the yield strikes me a low. Morningstar also says the mix has 55% in financials which if correct (and it may not be) is very high, and so is underweight everything else.
Generally I think simple is better but I am wary of too simple. None of us can know what will become of things like social security or Medicare (and I concede nothing bad may happen here), will we have some sort of economic collapse in the US or will the next big boom allow the country to grow out of all the various deficits and short comings (certainly this is not impossible)?
These things are beyond our control so it makes sense to focus on what is in your control which is your savings rate and taking an active role in the management of your portfolio (here this can mean doing it yourself or hiring someone).
From what I can tell this mix is not forward looking, it appears to be based on how these assets classes have done in the past. I would not be willing to bet the future of my financial security solely on a strategy that has worked well in the past. The belief in a more proactive approach might be more of a philosophical thing but markets all evolve. I think history is important to understand and incorporate into what is hopefully a forward looking analysis.
10 comments:
I've read the book. SA picks the weakest model...though I haven't read the article in SA. The actively managed model is more interesting, much more. There is some very intereting historical distillations in this book plus well thought out rules for style vs growth, small vs large, foreign vs domestic, cash vs equities, and how to measure risk. All worth a re-read for the diy and for SA to look at something more than the static model.
For most folks, my book will encourage those that need this quality of publication to:
Spend less than you earn.
Save 20% of your gross income.
Don't spend your savings.
$24.95
My second book will say about the same thing.
$29.95
I just LOVE it when EVERTBODY is sooo sure that REITS are THE place to be......and will return the last 10yrs returns the NEXT//
You can see the wreck a million miles away.
the g
Basing allocation ideas on history is okay BUT 10, 20, even 30 years isn't enough time to project future performance. Too many folks are allocating far too much to REITs and commodities as core holdings imo. Burton Malkiel's latest incarnation of "Random Walk..." recommends a minimum of 10% in REITs...I also think that is too much.
But 'T', I want to invest like the big players NOW!
I don't want to delay gratification by having to save up a bunch of money. I figure a little near infinite margin should do the trick: if it is good for the option-ARM crowd it should be good for me! Right?
A frustrating year. Reits are overpriced all over the globe. One theory is that it's arab held dollars chasing commodities. As big as our trade inbalance is with China, the trade surplus with the arab oil barons is four times higher. There's a beautiful macro mosaic out there. If we can just get that big picture in focus before the big moves that keep on chugging.
If Sam Zell is selling Equity Office Properties, it's time to bail on REIT's. They look overvalued and could become a wreck for years and years.
Big Equity REITs are greviously overvalued.. This proposed portfolio will be slaughtered when the REIT bubble collapses.
This is a bit late, but the proposed allocations listed add up to 110%.
20% for AGG--typo
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