Well no, that's not true. I will be hunkering down until the close and then watching some football without going shopping.
The US session is only three and a half hours today. It is only three or four hours every day in the Philippines; fun fact.
Even with every living American going to two malls today the US dollar is getting hit yet again. EURUSD has gone through 1.30, the Swissi is back below 1.21, over night the Aussie was $0.78 and the dollar has even been getting weaker against the Hungarian forint. Remember Hungary? The big cheese there lied about the country's growth rate and their currency is up on the dollar.
These big moves like we've had over the last few days happen every so often and usually we see a lot of people come out after a big move calling for a much larger move in the same direction. It is usually at that point that the dollar then heads back the other way. We'll see if it holds up this time.
If the dollar is down, gold must be up and it is, rather quietly. Not much has been happening with gold so it seems but actually gold has had a decent rally and is getting close to $640. It is up close to 10% since late September. This is a good example of why you can't give up on every theme that may not be working.
It looks like the ten year is yielding 4.54% this morning, wow. I have not been on board with any justification for why this inverted curve is different from past inversions. If somehow this inversion is different, there is no recession and no normal sized bear market decline I will be thrilled.
For the record we have done most of our holiday shopping already but I still need to shop for my wife.
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7 comments:
So Roger, I guess your wife doesn't read your blog?
:)
hearty chuckle, she knows I haven't bought her gift yet.
I hope all of you can join in and participate in my not-so-scientific poll. What phase of the economy do you think we're currently in?
Trough
Early Expansion
Mid Expansion
Late Expansion
Peak
Early Recession
Mid Recession
Late Recession
I don't want to skew the results by telling you what I think - I'll only say that I'm more than a little perplexed. Roger, I'm very curious as to what you think.
pre-recession or if you like headed toward a recession.
headed to a recession, quiety and slowly, by next year, we will all feel it, without further guessing.
the doom and gloom is hear,,,,,,
I'm happy to know I haven't totally lost touch of where we are in the cycle.
One of my sector model components is based on historical sector rotation given the phase of the economic cycle we're in. My guess is we've been in Peak phase for some time now. I follow The Conference Board's Leading and Coincident Indexes and they seem to be improving somewhat. The past few releases have also been upgraded as well.
If stocks are a leading indicator, it's seems we're still several months away from a recession or soft landing.
Peak.....
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