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10 comments:
Models for this week:
International/U.S. Allocation - Long positions
MSCI EAFE Index 30%
MCCI Emerging Markets Index 40%
U.S. - 30%
Timing Score - 1.5
80% Long 20% Cash
Top Ranked U.S. Sectors
U.S. Telecommunications 4.0
Composite Internet 4.0
U.S. Pharmaceuticals 3.0
U.S. Banks 3.0
U.S. Technology 3.0
U.S. Financials 2.5
U.S. Health Care 2.5
International Top ETFs
MSCI Spain Index Fund 3
MSCI Mexico Index Fund 3
MSCI Singapore Index Fund 3
MSCI Sweden Index Fund 3
FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund 3
MSCI Belgium Index Fund 2
MSCI Netherlands Index Fund 2
MSCI EMU Index Fund 2
All 4 of Jason Goepfert's intermediate term sentiment models are now OB. His Advisor/Investor Sentiment model hasn't been updated since 11/10, so it's possible that one has moved into extreme nose bleed levels (it's only a moderate nose bleed right now).
You'll notice my timing model ticked down another half point to 1.5. I'm tempted to reduce equity exposure to 70%, but I think I'll hold tight for now. My rules allow me 10% subjective sway. Short term, I think the market is going to get hammered, but I don't believe we've seen the high for the intermediate cycle yet. That's just a wild guess though.
tomk: there are two scenarios that ta types i follow are talking about. one is lots of chop and sellling that will threaten to be deep but prove to be only noise; dips will be bought and onwward upward. the second scenario is that the chop turns nasty, even though the big picture is bullish. You must be way ahead of the game and have the flexiblity to protect profits. How much of a correction off the top are you willing to tolerate? The school of don't anticipate may be punished more than those over anticipating. Finding the sweet spot in the middle is an art. Meanwhile, nice calls. What inspires the high exposure to emerging markets? Can I hire you?
Roger, You're popular in our household. Another coffee sit, sip and listn. When you get more traffic the nut jobs, not me eh?, are going to clog it up. The good ole days will be gone. While my wife is not listening, can you tell me if you were interviewed by the wallstrip girl?
Anon 4:41 - Scenarios are fun to talk about over a beer, but I wouldn't invest a dime on any of them...including my own.
My timing model is 90% mechanical and changes in allocation are determined by the model score. There are three things that will trigger more movement into cash. 1)Goephert's sentiment models breach ultra OB levels 2) certain sentiment models reverse from OB territory 3) U.S. equity indexes start falling below their 75 day and/or 250 day moving averages.
oh, Emerging Markets...
40% is the max limit I would allocate to emerging markets via this strategy. Take a look at these charts though:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUA:$MSEMF&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07915535497
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$IEE:$MSEMF&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p14720157666
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$RUA,$IEE,$MSEMF
thanks as always TomK, emerging, wow! you have quite a following.
no interview yet with Lindsay yet haha.
Roger you're one of the bloggers in the business who doesn't have much to say. Will Bin Laden ever let you go? I hope they're at least giving you water in that safe house. Post some trades Roger so we can have a few good laughs at your horendous timing.
roger, i can be techie idiot. How do I see your interview with the lindsay? Which date is it?
Hey anon 4:52, what's your YTD return? Why don't you post some trade ideas?
sorry if i was not clear there are no plans for Lindsay to interview me.
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