Bill McLaren, who I think is an important read, said in this week's commentary; If the index (meaning the S&P 500) can close below 1370 it will go a long way to indicate the exhaustion is complete.
He has been referring to this last move up as an exhaustion. Obviously the S&P 500 closed below 1370 yesterday. While I do not know if he will be right this time or not he does have an excellent track record.
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5 comments:
Although I find enormous value in technical indicators/models and mechanical systems, I'm a huge skeptic of the subjective art of chart/pattern reading, Gann theory, Elliott Wave theory, Fibonacci numbers, etc. I especially cringe when I hear terms like "exhaustion" and "vibration in time". Btw, is exhaustion a cause or effect?
Why can't these guys just come out and say 'I think the S&P500 has PEAKED for the next X to Y weeks'? Better yet, tell me in plain english WHY you believe the "trend has exhausted".
This "exhaustion" thing is so if,then, maybe. Roger, don't know the source but my read of him is that he is simply putting out a yellow caution light. Wow. Many of us like to grab hold of a concept to feel "as if" we have our hands on the wheel. For any of us who are not totally passive, there is the inescapable dilemma-do we anticipate or react? Personally, I find your wallstrip girl much more stimulating. Can you tell me about her being here?
Roger, why waste time on this useless drivel? Do you think your job is to predict short term moves in the market? If so, I'd never let you manage a dime for me.
Herein lies the problem with indexing, etfs and other "market based" approaches to investment - it opens the door to chartology - for some reason this is seen a voodoo for individual stocks, but somehow less ridiculous when speaking about the market as a whole...
Anonymous6:02,
You probably dont have a dime to invest and Roger only takes clients with assets.
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