Commentary: Five themes for the next five years - MarketWatch
A good read from Todd Harrison-thanks Barry.
Proud Member Of
Random Roger
© 2009 | Gadget Theme Blogger Template
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
4 comments:
Very thought provoking article. Thanks.
Question:
If hoarding of resources commences in earnest I see why the commodity prices would rise. I am not sure, however, to paraphrase the article, commodities then decoupling from equities, would lead to the commodities becoming a larger part of the stock indicies??? Indeed, if many nations are hoarding their recources as a hedge against the decline of the US $ wouldn't that preclude full public market participation?
Comment:
"Stuck in the middle with Yu" is priceless!
The worldwide concentration of capital in the hands of the few--predicted by Marx--juxtaposed with the last big communist nation's accumulation of questionable money from the nation famous for exporting capitalism.
Also, the way he put the three North American countries into a complementary economic union assumes both Canada and Mexico would be satisfied with the US consuming their resources and labor?? "Stuck in the middle" looks pretty good from that angle.
I heard a comment on CNBC Worldwide Exchange this morning that if you were to short the Dow on 9/05 each year and cover the short on 10/25 and go long 'til the following sept, you would be up (way up) versus just going long. Of course, this is using average price movements. He also talked about a 4 year cycle that calls for a sharp correction (10-15%, maybe more) soon to the US averages. He sounded like he knew what he was talking about. Do you put any faith in Cycles or Supercycles predicting market moves? I am not sure what to think. Tom in Indy
I think the hoarding, could it be successful, would clearly push up prices but not eliminate the market. Related equities, in a dire playing out of the scenario might not be sufficient. Meaning the downturn in the economies would mean even oil stocks, as an example, would go down.
Tom the short answer is no I don't invest around things like you describe. There'd be no real way to justify the position to a client. There are other mor gradual cycles that I am aware that have clear fundamentals behind them but going short for six weeks late in the summer may not be one of them.
Hoarding of commodities is already taking place, more than noted in the article. For example, China has inked deals with a host of Latin countries to supply fixed amounts of materials for their consumption. The goal is to secure volume long-term, not necessarily to hedge against an unstable dollar.
What will be interesting to watch is the development of how much oil trades on the Iranian bourse; in euro.
Post a Comment