Wikinvest Wire

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Various What Nots

I had a slew of questions come in. The answers are yes, yes, no and 7. Thanks for stopping by.

I guess I'm in a mood today?

I had a few comments about my post on GCS. First, something that no one called me on was the wrong symbol for Exxon. I typed MOB, the old symbol for Mobil Oil, yikes. There was a question on the yield. If you look at Yahoo it says it yields 11% but that includes gains paid out. The actual dividend is about 1% per ETFconnect.

A reader asked for other ideas for commodity access. I would say any of the things I have been writing about all this time. There are various ETFs and common stocks that obviously provide access. Longtime reader George pointed out that for the last year (I looked at two years) GCS has done quite well. I questioned GCS as being the best way to capture the effect. If I wasn't clear, it does capture the effect but I don't think it is the best way to capture it. Of course I may wrong.

I want to learn more about Tek Cominco (TCK). It is not a new company but is new to the NYSE. To be clear, I have not studied the name, know very little and am not a buyer. I have no idea if anyone should buy it or not.

Long time reader Londoner asked for my take on the new ETFs filed for by Powershares. Obviously it is too early to really know anything but a couple of them do look interesting. I have no idea if I am a buyer, it is just too early. The private equity fund proposed gives people a chance to replicate some of what is being done at the Yale endowment fund. I'm not sure if that it necessary or appropriate for the typical retail sized portfolio and per the article I linked to it does seem a little complex.

The problem that some of these rotation ETFs create (read the article to know what I mean) is that holders need to more closely monitor the holdings in these funds. If the one of these has 20% financials today and zero next quarter, you would need to make changes elsewhere to stay diversified. This does not make the new funds bad, it just creates work, IMO.

Another reader asks what foreign bond funds help if the dollar falls. Well they all do. There are plenty of OEFs and CEFs to choose from. I'll hold off on naming names on the off chance someone would buy one without doing proper homework.

A reader asked how I think foreign stocks would do vs. a weak dollar and in a US recession. Foreign, as an asset class, would likely do well for US based investors against a weaker dollar. A recession requires more specific country selection. I would expect countries that are dependent on exporting to the US to feel our recession more than others.

Lastly I made a joke about no other brother combos in the capital market blogosphere. Adam Warner chimed in that his sister will be starting a blog of her own soon.

6 comments:

Londoner said...

Thanks for the comment on powershares. As you say, let's see the detail on the offerings. Impressive to see a firm pushing for genuine innovation like this, however. I see they're involved on plans to convert two CEFs to ETFs too...

Anonymous said...

I took a look at my trading data over the last three years last night. In 2004, I couldn't do anything wrong (some hyperbole, but up 30%). In 2005 and 2006 I was slightly down when trading expenses were factored in. If I had not taken that look, I would have guessed wrong 10 out 10 times on how I have done over the last 3 years. I didn't loose any sleep over it but now I'm wondering if I was just that good in '04 and that bad in '05 and '06. I think I tried to outsmart myself (more trades) in '05 and '06. Right now I will ponder this while I ride my bike about 50 miles or so. BB will do what he will do, the market will go up or down, my question is how much time will I spend deciding on what to do and what what choices will I make once I have decided? Currently, I am hedged for either an up or down move in the US markets, but I am just like like everybody else, I hate uncertainty. Tom in Indy

Anonymous said...

BTW I was reading the first week of your blog, do you still have kramer, toodle, and stimpie? Tom in Indy

Roger Nusbaum said...

Tom, up 30% in 2004 or 2003? Kudos and snaps if it was 2004.

Stimpy and Toodie died. Stimpy was my first dog, she was 13. Toodie was a chihuahua that we adopted. We were told she was 5 but she was older and her heart gave out, this was from left field.

Kramer is doing well, she is 14. We have two new dogs that are bigger hiking dogs, Roscoe and Tater. They ae litter mates but we adopted them separately.

Ben Stein talks all the time about the virtues of having dogs and he is 100% correct.

Although Roscoe + Tater + Kramer don't add up to 1 Leonard the monkey for stock selection.

Anonymous said...

I have looked at Teck and bought their canadian B shares (since sold). They look like a great company and once the whole Inco situation clears up, they should take off.

They have lots of reserves (of zinc, copper, etc) on the balance sheet at a pittance of what they could sell for.

Josh

Anonymous said...

While I was riding, I thought more about it and the 30% gain was for both '03 & '04. Not as grand as I thought. Most of that was from taking a large position in Dell when they traded around 19$ a share. I got out at around 28 and the stock continued up. Now its made the round trip back down to the low 20's. Hmmmm. Tom in Indy

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