The market looks like it is going to start the day higher. Europe and Asia are/were mostly higher too. If the market opens at its high and fades as the day goes on, we should not be surprised but it would be consistent with how the market has traded all summer.
Marc Pado from Cantor Fitzgerald was on Today's Business Europe with a very pessimistic commentary saying he sees no positives out there for the market for quite a while. Marc is in the regular rotation and gets it right a lot. The nothing positive remarks may or may not turn out to be correct but if there really are no positives for many months I have to wonder about a surprise rally. If there is nothing positive to lift the market that would mean a rally would come at precisely the time no one thinks.
This is not a prediction but more of a reminder that the market can go in the opposite direction of what it should do. This is exactly why I would not zero out my equity holdings.
I am a little amused by the chatter on CNBC about now having another month of uncertainty after yesterday's Fed news. Of course the uncertainty will go past September.
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1 comments:
Bonds and MM. Since june 26th, wow, bonds have inched up. Vanguard total bonds almost 2 percent, and an intermediate bond fund 3 percent..not to mention interest. Short bonds, where consensus was, has trailed far behind. This is tough real estate in this mkt. Small gains sound good to me. And, just another example of how the mkt disappoints consensus (bonds are not bullish and if you have to go short duration). Roger aptly points out how consensus so often fails. FWIW, (from citi bank's analyst, tobias L.:"During the ten periods of Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index deceleration since '80, the S&P 500 appreciated
eight out of ten times, while 10-year yields have fallen in every instance." Personally, I captured some of the gain but chickened out for the safety of an instituitional MM which has been paying 5.15. Higher than your retail MM. A difference I don't understand. Roger, can you tell if fixed income vehicles are going to suck up the inflows and dampen inflows for equities?
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