On the Monday morning Asia Squawk Box Darryl Guppy, a technician who is on every so often and who seems to know what he is doing, dissected the S&P 500 in the manner I have done here.The line which I have made purple was resistance and is now support and the green line is now resistance. Candidly I don't think I have ever looked at such a steep slope for a line of resistance and while his analysis may or may not be correct it is interesting. He noted the market needs to break above 1320 for him to believe good things will happen.
On a note that may or may not be different, Don Hays called for a fast and big up 30% move the other day. He seemed to be implying some urgency to this.
While I do not agree with the call, 30% in just a few months has happened in the past, but more frequent have been 20% moves out of nowhere.
I tried to find some content on the website with more details but could not. I did find the following headlines, but could not access the content, that surprised me given the interview he gave to Erin Burnett. I must be missing something.
Last Days of August
The Last Vestiges of Unstable Vigilantes
8/28/06
OEX Put/Call Signals Weakness…Yet Again
Don’t Shoot the Messenger
8/25/06
Smart Investors Bearish/Dumb Investors Bearish
Non-Confirmations Say Bull Not Ready to Romp Just Yet
8/23/06
5 comments:
Is the possible rally (at least by some anaylsts you have mentioned) in US stocks a result of the projected fall in the US dollar which should aid US exports? Also, perhaps lower oil prices are seen to be more likely as the hurricane season has been muted? Or are the calls based all on technical factors?
Thanks for doing the fire fighting regimen. If exercise is the elixir of healthy life you should live VERY long while prospering!
Darryl's opinions are purely technical. As I understood (and now remember) Mr. Hays' interview he is pointing to visibility for rate cuts by the Fed.
Your question is asked with a granularity and depth that the Hays interview did not offer.
below is a link to a john markman piece from last october. in it don hays predicts the market will double in the next few years. here's a snippet:
**In late September, Hays told clients to expect gains of 100%-plus in the next couple of years, in part due to vast piles of individual and corporate cash being put to work amid “the reinvigoration” of the U.S. dollar and productivity. “The monetary liquidity floating around the world is so humongous it is impossible to describe all the pockets overflowing and looking for a home,” he said, adding that the believes U.S. GDP is on track to double to a 7% annualized rate, while inflation will remain in a 1%-to-2% range over the next decade.**
I would just point out he's made variations of that sorta call for more than a year now... but he's always waiting for something or other to get cleared off the runway. eventually he'll be right.
on a separate note, I had let my sub to don hays site lapse however long ago, so I went to the cnbc/msn site figuring I'd watch the video from last friday's interview...
... and by doing so was reminded how cnbc's web presence is so uniformly awful! This is "CNBC" AKA "General Electric"!! Great Boogley Woogley! He was just on last Friday! not only is there no video, there's no indication that Don Hays ever lived.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P132295.asp?GT1=7160
funny, Don who?
Well, the market hasn't had a good performance the last week of August in quite some time :)
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