I make the same lame joke every Fed day about uncertainty ending. Assuming the Fed pauses today we may have even more uncertainty in the coming months. Will they hike next meeting? What about the meeting after that?
Just this morning with the data that came out the Squawk Box gang was wondering if they are going to hike today. That was tongue in cheek I suppose but....Think about what usually happens when Ben speaks. The market drops more often than not.
I heard more than a couple of people say that the news will cause a slight lift that should be sold. If that is the consensus I have to think it will be wrong. So if that is wrong maybe the means the market will either lift and then keep lifting, drop and keep dropping or drop a little and then lift.
Given Ben's track record I'll take the under.
6 comments:
I get the impression that regardless of the Fed's move today, the market will be sold. If we are at a level that the Fed things the economy is slowing enough to contain aggregate demand, then that should bring elevated demand for commodities back down. That would mean less revenue for most companies. Then there is the flip side of the coin: The Fed still needs to raise rates as there is inflationary pressures that have not abbated. In both scenarios, the equity markets don't look promising.
I guess I would say I don;t see what will make the market go higher after the news.
I also heard CNBC this am. Their snide comment about "isn't that what the FEd does....fight inflation?"
Those people are idiots. Furthermore, they don't realize that most of us realize it.
Ask yourself, which is WORSE:
Inflation 1970's
Depression 1930's
If you were in charge,on which side would you be willing to err ?
g
but are we allowed to be depressed if there is too much inflation? wise-ass comment.
The they don't know we are laughing at them comment is great.
OK, maybe this is too much contrarian thinking, but EVERYWHERE i read everyone thinks that this market will be sold after the fed, either after a short blip up or immediately, and that leads me to believe that in fact we will see a strong rally today - that's the only scenario that will catch people off guard
Caveat - the selloff will come after a few days of upside - the herd usually right about the trend, wrong about the timing
any thoughts?
I would rather see inflation than depression but today's economic enviroment is far different from that of the 30's making George's question a little absurd.
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