Before today's post; we got some fantastic views and photos today in an area of Stockholm known as Gamla Stan.
I found the following links, one from Marketwatch about too many ETFs that I think is a retread of an older article and another one from ETF Investor questioning the utility of currency ETFs. Weigh all of these issues for yourself. Don't listen to me or someone else, you will know if the various new products are right for you or nöt (he he different keyboard!).
I stumbled across a press release on Yahoo Finance from a stock picking site that said ETFs would now be included in its research and in its model portfolio selections.
I tried to sign up for the free trial to see what their reports are like but despite being free they wanted my credit card number, I passed.
As I read the press release I had a general thought about picking ETFs that is bigger than whatever this site may be looking to do.
"What ETF would you buy right now" is the mindset of too many people, IMO. This leads to chasing returns and makes all of the naysayers of sector funds exactly right when they caution about how dangerous they can be.
In a way, trying to game a single country or a sector for a couple of weeks in anticipation of an event can be more difficult than gaming a stock. I'll use an example that is completely made up. Let's say an investor thinks that Conoco Philips' earnings will lift the entire energy sector so he buys the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) in which COP is the third largest holding. Let's say the investor is exactly right about COP and most of the sector but at the same time that COP is making its news Exxon Mobil (XOM) has some sort of hideous scandal that knocks the stock down 15%. Since XOM is the largest holding in XLE, at 16%, the trade as implemented fails. Reasonably speaking, the analysis in the example was good but it is tough to game a scandal.
The long-term holder is no better off of course but the mindset of the event trader and the long-termer are different.
For anyone new, I think of ETFs as one of several tools available to build a diversified portfolio. As an investor constructs his portfolio there are certain parts of the market that will be captured. Some parts are best captured with a stock or ETF or fund or maybe something else. There is nothing that says you have to all ETFs. For your energy exposure (sticking with the example of above) you should buy whatever you think best captures the sector. For someone that owns a bunch of OEF the best energy hold could be an individual stock? The point is not to limit your thinking.
Proud Member Of
Random Roger
© 2009 | Gadget Theme Blogger Template
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
7 comments:
I have found it rewarding to pay attention to what Prof. Jeremy Siegel has to say and, therefore, would like to find out more about the new Wisdom Tree ETF's he and Michael Steinhardt (another heavyweight worth listening to) and Jonathan Steinberg recently launched. I understand they are based on Jeremy's work refining and limiting indexing to companies paying dividends and with a history of increasing such payouts. I notice some of the ETF's have a pretty healthy yield. Could you look into this, Roger, and perhaps it would be appropriate to get a discussion going on same. Thanks.
FWIW. I know of a private asset mgmt firm that broke off from a small cap dominated asset mgmt firm in the early 90's. The new crew saw the end of the small cap rally and believed in the research of screening large cap companies with increasing dividends. That screen has been around for a while. Problem is that different criteria have different cycles. BUT, trends do last and have "trajectory" power. Roger, I too, can't stand the next new etf web site that lists ten worse and ten highest gainers in the last 10 days. Just noise and distraction. What would interest me are intermediate bets that last 6 months to three years. One can have a core of diversified holdings and try to weight some sectors greater than cap would call for. Roger, FOR MY HEAD, i encourage to keep preaching the no big bets, cool and steady, and avoid the big downside chunk. It's the latter that we differ the most. My tolerance for a loss is now single digits. Among retired bloggees, here, I wonder what the degree of tolerance for others is and then what their preference is for how to manage that degree of an annual drawdown(%bonds,%cash, %hard assets,% shorts/options/stategic hedging,or timing. Your followers, if I might include myself, have higher than average investment intelligence.
Roger
You might want to ask for an "American Keyboard" if you are in an internet cafe.
I once spent 15 minutes looking for the @ symbol, before they gave me the American one.
OG
Use the rally to sell all but your energy and precious metals positions. Move a significant portion of your cash to FXE.
This is a long way from over. And even if not for WW3 in the middle east, the Fed has sold you out for a huge correction in RE. How hard do you want to be hammered on the downside, chasing the x% possible upside.
Same ol' from me.
We've topped in the first leg up in the secular bear reversal rally, there will be another leg down, then one more up and then a final leg down in the secular Bear of 2000 to 2010. Not astrology but historical best estimates. Ignore at your peril. Like I need to post 1000's of dollars of research for free.
Sold GS after a huge nonsense pop and bot more gold. Bought a HUGE amount of puts on the XHB again after the minor reversal. Have a huge amount of dry powder waiting for more weakness on the XHB and their counterparts. WCI, PHM, MTG, will be bankrupt. Nat Gas just getting started.
Run with the Lemmings whilst the holographic carrot deceives. We will see the next historic nuclear explosion in Iran in the form of bunker busters.
The race is insane. How many air bursts do you think there were before we finally decided we had perfected the A and H bomb? And then we went to underground.
I might be off a couple, but my search shows TWO actual use bombs over Japan, and 330 test blasts in the air, all more powerful than the Japan bombs. 330+!. Wouldn't you think that after the next 100 air bursts we would have "figured it out"? But no, we are a savage race and if not for environmental groups there would have been a lot more than 330 air bursts. We are insane, and anyone who invests otherwise, is... maybe normal. DB
The guy in past posts who suggested I "Off Myself for voting Bush" is in error. Well hs IS a Dufus!!!
Then how can I vote otherwise?
This is a "whole 'nother can of worms". Us bailing on the dollar after the crash, going to the Amero, merging the peso and Canadian dollar into one.
If you don't know the treaty I'm referring to, you better get ya head out of ya arse. This country is going to hell in less than a handbasket, due to George Bush. Fast. By 2010.
I don't think it matters who claims president, they seem powerless and clueless. No reason to believe the next is better than the last. It's a real sad state of affairs!
I better stop before I get ire.
Sell, you are toast. Short the XHB. Buy Gold.
OT Ebay Failure, Total IMHO. Total utter dismal failure.
Used them in the past, mixed results. 100+ OK transactions, one total rip off, stole my money.
Tried to contact them (EBay) by web or phone. Guess what... After an hour, I had neither.
Finally got someone who would send an annual report, but had no other info.
This company is outrageous!!!! I'm gonna short this to oblivion.
And then some more.
Let anyone else contact customer service with any luck. What a friggin' joke. EBay is toast IMHO.
About EBAY, we have had over 1000 transaction both selling and buying. A good little side business. Be an honest seller and use delivery confirmation and insurance. On buying always buy using a credit card through PayPal. In general always keep you PayPal account empty. We have gotten some great timeshares a little southeast of Roger(Phoenix). Often bid with 20 and 10 seconds to go. As always buyer beware and know how to play the game correct. My 2 cents!
Post a Comment