Some of you may know that I write for RealMoney/theStreet.com, mostly about ETFs. I was asked to participate in a 360 on this topic raised by Cramer. A 360 is where several writers weigh in on a subject.
The following was my response as submitted, I don't know if it will be edited down or not.
In Jim’s recent article titled ETF Overload he questions the utility of some of the new ETFs coming to the market and has some fun with the narrow themes that some of the proposed ETFs cover, like insider buying and under-sponsored stocks.
I too wonder about the merits of the insider buying ETF but the back tested numbers for these things are outstanding. They are really no different than assembling portfolios based on stock screening. Back testing is much different than real life and I feel no need to be the first one into any of them but I would not permanently ignore them either. Some stock screens do work.
A while back I wrote a piece about the IPOX 100 Index Fund (FPX). The theme here, or gimmick if you prefer, is buying IPOs on day seven and holding them until day 1000. As I wrote in the piece, the methodology of picking IPOs is not the thing; the thing is the part of the market it captures. The Index that underlies that fund has been around for several years and has served as a very good proxy (as in it outperforms) small cap growth. Even since its debut this has stood up as FPX has beaten iShares Small Cap Growth (IWO).
This will repeat over and over with the narrower ETFs, they capture what they are meant to capture but could also capture some other effect.
Another thing that I think Jim is missing is that the ETF industry is brand new and evolving. In delivering new, innovative products there will be some very useful funds and some other that just take up space (think the Morningstar ETFs). Hit and miss is inevitable.
One last point, I disagree with Jim on the utility of sector ETFs. On Jim’s shows he is fond is helping his audience with Am I Diversified? The market, as measured by the S&P 500, has 10 sectors. I think Jim would be on board with a stock portfolio that had some exposure to all ten. Not everyone wants to take single stock risk but taking prudent sector risk, as opposed to make big sector bets, can be a different matter.
For example, the financial sector makes up 21% of the S&P 500. An investor wishing to underweight the financial sector could buy one of the broad sector ETFs with 15% of his portfolio and then perhaps one of the insurance ETFs with 2% of the portfolio. This type of process could be done for every sector. There are countless studies and white papers that show sector selection is more important than stock selection and ETF provide this to investors.
I would urge do-it-yourselfers to think outside the lines where ETFs are concerned.










5 comments:
If I had spent years learning security analysis, market/sector timing and the like, I would not like what the ETF's are doing. They would seem to trivialize my years of hard work and experience. ETF's often capture macro economic trends as well, not a sell side strong point.
Like Generals who are always fighting the last war, because that is what they know, ETF's represent a change to the establishment and are a puzzle to them.
OG
Roger..your sentiment is well balanced. If one is an advocate of top down analysis, there is no problem.ETFs are the perfect tool. For years, top downers were having to construct their own indices with time consuming software and hard decisions about weighting. On the other hand, a bottom up guy is going to be totally disinterested. Theoretically, bottom up skills remain invaluable to sector analysis. Each sector has its leader..what cramer calls best of breed...which is not an original concept by him...within an etf fundamental analysis of the leading and underlying stocks is going to give the investor some leading indication as to change in the sector itself. ETFs, bottom line, i wonder if they are one more step toward making the mkt more effetient and stronger grounds for passive diverse holdings???
Stock picking does seem like a quaint hobby doesn't it? With everything sliced and diced and indexed and all. I always enjoyed the stock picking process.
Roger - ...and you thought you knew something about ETF's... read this...
=================================
Dear ,
Please heed my warning.
Do not – I repeat, do not -- buy a single Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) … until you read our urgent Forbes ETF Advisor's Special Reports by clicking here now!
Yes, I know you’ve heard that…. ETFs can help you make big profits.
ETFs can do so with lower cost and less risk than owning individual stocks or mutual funds.
ETFs can be more tax efficient than even index funds.
But the conventional wisdom on how to invest in ETFs is all wrong….
And this bad advice can not only cost you a small fortune … it can lose you a big one!
Forbes newest partner Jim Lowell knows the right way … the profitable way … to buy and sell ETFs.
Who is Jim Lowell … and why should you trust his recommendations?
Follow the “smart money” to big ETF profits!
Jim is founder and chairman of The Rankings Service – an independent, objective, third-party research service for institutional clients, providing proprietary review, analysis, and monitoring of individual investment performance.
He is also the editor of the multiple award-winning, independent advisory newsletter, Fidelity Investor.
=========================
Cut it off here 'cause the rest is so stupid it's not humorous anymore.
Roger -
1) You are not the founder and chairman of the Rankings Service! 2)You are not the author of award winning Fidelity Investor!
How can you possibly know anything?
It's amazing that there is no prerequisite of being President of the local Yankee Doodle club!!!
Pardon the humor...it's been a long day...
I was looking through the slides at:
http://www.tompeters.com/entries.php?note=009038.php
Slide 30 had the following:
“Goldman Sachs in Tokyo has developed an index of 115 companies poised to benefit from women’s increased purchasing power; over the past decade the value of shares in Goldman’s basket has risen by 96%, against the Tokyo stockmarket’s rise of 13%.” —Economist, April 15
Thought it might be of interest.
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