You have a lot of split decision on what comes next for the market. The perma bulls are bullish and the perma bears are bearish. It is times like now that I often talk about. My opinion is that sustained strength seems unlikely but so what. I have been writing about not making an extreme bet.
Every so often someone will come on the tube and talk about having 50% in cash or some bigger number. That is a tough place to be for anyone. Something I have noted in the past ( but was far from the first to observe this) is that markets bounce off the bottom fast and hard. This repeats over and over. Lagging a huge move is one thing but missing it is something else.
I do not know if a bottom is in, I don't think so but I don't know. Fortunately I don't have to be correct and depending on what you have done in your own portfolio neither do you. A method of consistency and moderation is the path of least resistance.
There are articles here and there about people scrambling to get long yesterday. That is a tough position to be in, feeling like you have to buy right this minute.
Wikinvest Wire
4 comments:
One of the hardest things to do in the market is to see it go up without you.
Of course to go long now, means you hold over a long weekend where there is $73 oil, Iran pressure, and Isreal starting a war.
If you were in cash all year, you have beaten the market. How sad is that?
Josh
Josh,
funny although I'd take up a pecent or two over being down.
You have isolated some of the genuine emotions that people have to manage in order to navigate the market. Where emotion is concerned it is not easy, I think it gets a little easier if you can rely on logic.
Isn't it safe to ignore the permabulls and permabears? Does it matter what they think? (Other than for entertainment purposes...)
And heck, isn't "everybody" following O'Neill's IBD "follow through day" signal from yesterday?
;)
Hoping for a summer rally...
Muckdog,
Actually I am interested in what the perma bulls and bears say because there is a process to brings them to their conclusions. I am interested in their process. It helps me learn even if they are wrong a lot.
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