I am a little surprised that the Zarqawi news didn't give a lift at the open, you know the up 7 SPX points rally that fades 19 minutes into the day.
The S&P 500 is below its 200 DMA, sentiment stinks and money seems to be rotating out of every asset class. I'm sure this will turn out to be wrong but I think the market will turn around today and finish higher for the day.
If this is wrong I plan to sell down some tech into the close consistent with my get defensive strategy.
To reiterate something I write a lot is that downward action is normal, not fun, but normal. Obviously I believe in trying to take active steps to reduce the impact of moves like this but I am not making huge changes in client accounts. When the market does go up again, regardless of when, the move will probably be big and very fast. This is why I don't want too much cash. The money I manage is long term money. Despite any worry my clients might be feeling, being right for a couple of months is the wrong priority.
What is the long-term priority for your portfolio? Do you want to retire a couple of years early? Live better in retirement? Or is your long-term goal being right about the second quarter of 2006?
Wikinvest Wire
1 comments:
Roger - great call on looking for the market turnaround intraday. On a separate note, you talk a lot in your process about your sell discipline (your sales when indices breach 200d MA and so on). there is surely another side to this process too, however: having taken money off the table in such a way, what would prompt you to put it back into markets? An upside breach of a moving average (could be a way to generate a lot of trading costs for yourself...)? New stock/security specific ideas? Just interested...
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