That would be a good description of a post by Jim Cramer on RealMoney that you need a subscription to access.
He notes that there are too many bears "given the earnings profile of the market." I don't know what that means but he expects very good earnings starting with Yahoo (client holding) but also acknowledges the boost coming today from Morgan Stanley and FedEx. Another anecdote that contributes to his bullishness is the great numbers from Red Lobster.
That I do not agree with him does not matter, he could be 100% right. If you have too much cash you are lagging today but I would caution against jumping in on such a volatile day. An environment where 1% moves come every other day is tricky. I view that type of movement to be evident of a market trying to figure things out, not a market that knows what direction it wants go.
The resolution to this could go as Jim says or not but the take away for me is that nothing is resolved. I have roughly 20% in cash for clients and feel no need to make changes right now. More of a lift might be better to sell but I don't think we are there yet.
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6 comments:
Sentiment is bearish, stocks are low (lower than they were)
If this is not a buying oppourtunity than what is? When stocks are 10% higher and the trend is firmly in place?
There is risk, but this still seems like a normal correction.
It would be nice to buy 10% cheaper (you can always say that). But we have likely seen the market bottom.
For all the turmoil I am still up for the year (just barely). Why do we (me included) feel like this is so much worse than a side ways market that was down 2% ?
I know Crammer is a perma bull but that does not mean he must be wrong.
Teva is now a screaming buy.
You've often talked about your signals for cutting risk and reducing your exposure to markets. From here, what would make you increase risk and put cash back into equities?
I cover tech stocks for a small sell side firm and while my sector is clearly oversold and likely to have a good bounce into the fed meeting, I'd be very selective. If Europe really did shut down due to the World Cup matches, valuations wont support the combination of a short term earnings miss combined and concerns over a potential recession.
I cover tech stocks for a small sell side firm and while my sector is clearly oversold and likely to have a good bounce into the fed meeting, I'd be very selective. If Europe really did shut down due to the World Cup matches, valuations wont support the combination of a short term earnings miss combined and concerns over a potential recession.
thanks for the perspective David
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