The Nasdaq is down seven days in a row, according to Maria, I have not counted but I do assume she can count to seven.
That is a long time to go in one direction. The next 10% in the Nasdaq might very well be down but I would not be surprised if the next 1-2% is up starting in the next day or so.
I wrote something similar about the dollar on May 9. The dollar went down 97 days in a row (or thereabouts) before rebounding a little. I am no perma bull but no trend can go in one direction forever, that is just not how things work.
Depending on what you read or what you watch you may be picking up on emotion out there, if so leave it alone.
My posts have had a theme today about using logic not emotion to make decisions. If you look at market history or better yet remember the history you have lived through then, like me, you have seen this movie before.
No one knows what will come next but you might have an opinion. That opinion will either be right or it will be wrong and you will then act accordingly. For me I will sell a name or two if we breach the 200 DMA and then go from there while trying to minimize the consequence of being wrong.
None of the above requires intelligence or trading acumen, just a plan made before things were hitting the fan which is what I have been writing about the whole time.
Proud Member Of
Random Roger
© 2009 | Gadget Theme Blogger Template
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
6 comments:
A brief summary of the last month -Oil rises to $75/bbl and stocks go up and dow nears all time high. CPI goes up a little more than expected, market freaks out, at the same time oil drops to $68.5. I have no idea who is driving the bus at this point, but eventually those higher energy prices are going to be reflected in the goods we buy every day. Why does the market act surprised when it happens? As Roger points out, it pays to remain level headed.
i've been reading your posts regularly and i find your emphasis on thoughtful planning very helpful. since i read your blog last yr, i've incorporated some of your advice and i've made decent coin.
i have gold, inverse index funds, and a mix large caps. i appreciate what you're doing and my retirement fund thanks you too.
Thanks Roger for your steady approach. I reread your words on days like today and am learning to disassociate myself from the emotion of the day. I believe in my long-term themes, but will reduce my position sizes in most if the 200 dma is breached. Thankfully, I had already done so in a couple of positions several days ago, just because they were becoming too large a proportion. This is totally opposite of my past reactions, which of course, were the wrong decisions in retrospect. While I am disappointed at the loss over the last few days, I am ok with my plan. The fact that I have a plan is primarily attributable to your sharing your thoughts and ideas through your blog every day. I really look to your writing to help balance out the drama in the writings elsewhere. Thanks so very much for sharing your approach and insights.
thank you
Roger vs. Cramer
You can either read structured top down process on this blog and sereval others and seems boring at family reunions and parties because you don't have a HOT tip of the day or you can watch pumped up tv shows for high volume traders but on days like yesterday, I know who feels confortable with their overall portfolio.
Roger vs Cramer hahahaha
hey if i thought i could muster up a good lather and keep it going....i'm just too lazy
Post a Comment