I enjoyed the Wendell Perkins interview (read sarcasm) because he knew the oil stocks would struggle. Too bad he wasn't on TV before the Exxon report. He is a good money manager but a worthless TV interview. His performance numbers reveal he really does know what he is doing but I kind of lump him in with Vince Farrell as someone who doesn't really share process in a helpful way.
I was very public with my reducing oil stock exposure on Monday and emerging market exposure on Tuesday. One of the EM stocks I trimmed was my Chinese oil stock. Yesterday these trades didn't look so good and today they do look good and obviously I do not know how they will look tomorrow. Fortunately I am not concerned with being right or wrong for a week.
I do not think anything has changed with the long-term macro themes but it makes sense to think there will be volatility in both energy and emerging markets. After all, oil was at $63 a month ago.
How much energy do you have? How much do you have in emerging markets? It amazes me that so soon after the Internet days people are willing to have way too much in certain parts of the market. I have to conclude that people don't learn from past mistakes? I hope this is wrong.
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4 comments:
To answer your question, I have been underweight in energy. I honestly can't seem to find good opportunities in energy after the year run we have had. Also, who would have thought oil would go up 10 straight points in a month? What I did own worked well. I liked Evergreen Solar, Pacific Ethanol and Imperial Sugar that have all done well for me.
How about I consider the lesson learned to be to participate in the run up, but make sure I get out when things head south? I think many people view this as the lesson learned (buy and hold is dead).
I do not know if this is true, but it sure will make things interesting some day if it is true.
Or maybe we will need several bear markets before they learn the lesson.
KL
Roger,
Good stance on this. I mentioned it today onmy new blog, ideacapital.blogspot.com
Jeff
I think this is a very defensible call. The top may not be in but the downside is CLEARLY larger than the upside at this point. Taking money off the table is good investing. Oil will cycle down again and if The Bear is not growling you can add to your position then.
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