A few months ago I stopped trying to guess the jobs number as, after a hot streak, I completely lost touch with the number. I'm not sure being right or wrong about a number really means much for my job.
The consequence of the report does matter. A point that Mark Zandi has made in the past is that the economy needs to add 150,000 jobs per month just to run in place. The number of jobs added, as counted in the report, as been very underwhelming for the entire Bush presidency.
I have heard Larry Kudlow, Mike Holland and others chirp about the fact that more Americans are working now than ever before. OK, has there ever been a period where the US population trended smaller? Point being that as a function of natural growth, five years from now there will more American working than have ever worked before no matter how good or bad the economy is at that time.
Maybe analysis like this is obvious but in case it isn't....
Wikinvest Wire
7 comments:
DBC is trading this morning. I picked some up at 24.06 at Fidelity. Hope it will be a good overal commodities entry till one with less expenses comes up.
You are totally ignoring the household survey and only treating the jobs survey as accurate. You are ignoring the switch to large firms preferring to hire subcontractors and people starting small businesses.
By itself just the jobs survey data is misleading. Employment is huge, the 4.7% unemployment rate is real, but many, many more people are no longer employed by large companies.
For example, why should I continue to work for a large company when I can make a lot more money as an independent consultant while my wife works for a large insurance company with benefits? I and many other people are choosing to start small businesses or work as subcontractors and we are falling off the jobs survey radar. This group is growing but is still picked up by the house hold survey.
I know the jobs survey is larger, but it ignores a lot of data (small businesses). The smaller (still quite large) house hold survey picks up the people employed by small businesses and independents. Yes the house hold survey can be out of whack for one month, but not month after month for several years.
If you cherry pick the data (jobs survey only) do not be surprised if you lose track of what is truly happening in the economy. The 4.7% unemployment rate is real and most people do not have a good understanding of the huge growth in employment and very significant change in the market place.
thanks Sharon.
Anonymous makes a great point.
Bill Cara just wrote that he found out DBC is NOT a tracking fund, but a managed fund. no wonder the fees are so high. I better hope DB is got at picking commodities.I better do better research, too.
I don't think that is quite right. A small portion of the fund will be in treasuries to create yield to pay the fees. This might be the active portion.
You can click here for more info
For many the jobs number is as much a political statement as a economic one.
Thanks, Roger! I HAD read that page but a couple odf weeks ago, so the details had worn off, and I took Cara's comments at face value. Much relieved...
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