Tuesday, December 13, 2005
More FXE
It's been a worthwhile day in NYC so far. I met a friend for coffee, am visiting TheStreet.com office right now where I got to meet a few of the people I work with there and the market is not doing anything important.
I wanted to follow up with a little more about FXE and how it might find a place in a portfolio. First I should be clear that for now this is more of a brain storming exercise and not so much an important call I'm trying to make.
The dollar has had a big run against the euro of late, a run that I have said before I think is closer to the end than the beginning. If I am right about that then the timing is not as bad as has been the case for other new products.
There is an interest rate component to this that will probably improve as the ECB has just had one rate hike and most analysts don't think its the last. Aside from rising rates, generally being better for a currency it will also mean a higher yield for FXE holders.
I think this could be similar to a money market in one way, it is cash that pays a yield. It is unlike a money market in that it could move much more than investor just looking for a savings account might expect.
I mentioned in the other article that a 20% move in a currency is unlikely, but not a 5% move. If you buy what you think is a money market and you lose 5% on currency translation you will not be happy.
For now it is an easy way to access a foreign currency, easier and more liquid than the CDs at Everbank. I think there will be more of these but perhaps not just as ETFs. I've mentioned the structured product I own personally that owns a basket of Asian currencies. Perhaps growth will come in the structured product arena too. I'll try to stay on top of these but if you hear something please let me know.
I wanted to follow up with a little more about FXE and how it might find a place in a portfolio. First I should be clear that for now this is more of a brain storming exercise and not so much an important call I'm trying to make.
The dollar has had a big run against the euro of late, a run that I have said before I think is closer to the end than the beginning. If I am right about that then the timing is not as bad as has been the case for other new products.
There is an interest rate component to this that will probably improve as the ECB has just had one rate hike and most analysts don't think its the last. Aside from rising rates, generally being better for a currency it will also mean a higher yield for FXE holders.
I think this could be similar to a money market in one way, it is cash that pays a yield. It is unlike a money market in that it could move much more than investor just looking for a savings account might expect.
I mentioned in the other article that a 20% move in a currency is unlikely, but not a 5% move. If you buy what you think is a money market and you lose 5% on currency translation you will not be happy.
For now it is an easy way to access a foreign currency, easier and more liquid than the CDs at Everbank. I think there will be more of these but perhaps not just as ETFs. I've mentioned the structured product I own personally that owns a basket of Asian currencies. Perhaps growth will come in the structured product arena too. I'll try to stay on top of these but if you hear something please let me know.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)





4 comments:
PLEASE MENTION AGAIN THE PRODUCT
WITH ASIAN CURRENCY. THANKS,
Cool info. Doubt I'll buy it but info like this is why I come by your blog.
-Martin
CAQ.
To be clear I did NOT buy it for clients.
I like FXE for its convenience and bought it at 119. I wonder, though, if I'd be better off just changing money into the target currency directly and paying conversion costs (both ways) over paying capital gains on the ETF profits.
Post a Comment