That's how giddy the market feels. Despite my general skeptical outlook right now and having a little too much cash it looks like I am more than capturing the effect in the equity market today so this is not sour grapes.
But why isn't anyone at least asking if this could be a blow-off day that means a top? I certainly don't know the answer but I'd like to hear someone pipe up. Where's Michael Metz, oh wait is he bullish now?
As a follow up to this morning, I sold my RIMM at 63.74. It was exactly right for about 15 minutes and now the stock is up around $65. I got my trade and exited the position. I don't care what I leave on the table. Looking back can be unwise.
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6 comments:
It has the look and feel of a blow-off, after such a nice run, but the sentiment numbers tell a different story. AAII members were still not out-right bulls as of Monday, put-call ratios have not gone beserk and even the Rydex crowd is still short a lot of stocks.
I'm eager to study the numbers tomorrow morning. Too many folks have predicted the year end rally but I will not take money off the table with such a blaise` response. For now, I'm enjoying Ken Fisher's bucking bronco ride! Should the ECB and the FOMC pound on Gold together for a few licks, the bottom may fall out of the inflation scare and all bets are off!
I know you've said it in here somewhere and I constantly tell my clients the same thing, but it bears (no pun intended) repeating now anyway:
I can make up lost opportunity a lot easier than lost money.
thanks for the comments to both Jack's!
you know Ken? good stuff.
A very 'interesting' (in the sense of the Chinese curse) market this is indeed -- I've sold into it and have more cash than usual (with the exception of some additional gold shares - just can't resist when I see elevated short interest) -- and plan to stand pat for now. The next 30 days, or maybe even the next 3 hours, will tell their tale but I'm less interested in bulls and bears than I am in risk and reward and right now the odds of 'losing a lot' seems higher than 'gaining a little' much less 'a lot,' at least to me. If I miss some more rise here, fine, there will be buying opportunities after the excitement has worn off.
-RW
RW,
pretty insightful stuff. thank you
I don't know Ken Fisher personally but I have read his stuff regularly for 23 years. During the early 1990's breakout, he talked about holding on tight to ride a bucking bronco. This idea made a lasting impression. Before, I was much too quick at taking my big profits; now, I stubbornly hold onto my winners, even when "it makes no sense". This is the explanation for holding Google and the airlines. My unrealized gains are large but Ken says when you are on a winner to hang on for dear life. Google is still a very expensive stock and the airlines are still losing money. If you want to see the most extreme figures in your life, compare the price to sales rations of GOOG and CAL. Never-the-less, GOOG and CAL are up today. CAL and AMR are up strong even though oil is back all the way to the top of the intermediate term trading range. These two have gotten their non-fuel costs to such levels that they will make nice profits no matter what happens with oil. When oil drops to $40 these two will be making a killing. Yep, I am worried a bit because I'm getting to be as giddy as a school girl!
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