Sentiment stinks, GM, DPH, XLNX, NAVG, RFX, AA rallied after hours to take back $23! I remember trashing AA for Motley Fool months and months ago and it was above $30.
Count me in with the crew that is pessimistic about the next few months or longer but with so many things looking so bad maybe this is a washing out?
One problem with that idea is the market is not down that much. 1997 and 1998 both had 20% drops that were not terror induced. The current market has hardly dropped at all.
Twenty years ago the automotive and airline industries were very important to the stock market and the economy. Their current struggles were probably unimaginable back then, especially GM. I wrote a lot out GM back in the spring. I can sum up my thoughts by saying it has $300 billion in debt, and will need more, with only $30 billion or so in cash.
That GM could fail was an impossibility way back when. The lesson here should be that any company can fail, any company. Market history has plenty of huge companies that one way or another are gone. I wouldn't call Digital Equipment's merger with Compaq a merger of strength, as an example.
The idea changes buy and hold to buy, monitor and hold, for those who are devoted to buy and hold at all.
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3 comments:
The difference ( imho ) between "Now and Then" is that now, a company can declare BK, and keep on running...making cars, boats, telephony, you name it. The only losers are the stock and bond holders; which the press is all too happy to point out that the "rich get what they deserve for being greedy". Companies will go through the period, issue new stock to new buyers, and all is well.
Names? Kmart, Worldcom, ICO Global, just to name a FEW.
Yes, the A/D ratio, lack of volume on advancing days look bad for the US market. I am more than just surprised that the world market has not been dragged down by the US market as it did before. Could it mean that the other world(non-US) economy and influence have exceeded the US that we lost our preeminent position, as British empire fell some years ago. I am holding on to my gold and international funds and have 30% of my positions hedged with QQQQ puts.
great stuff guys, thank you!
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