Wikinvest Wire

Tuesday, October 25, 2005

I May Rue The Day

I'm not sure if that is how you spell rue or not but this morning I sold Google across the board for clients. Only about 2/3's of the accounts I manage owned the stock.

I am still in New Zealand so I had to wake up at 2:30 am local time to sell it at the open. I bought the stock back in August at about $288 with a specific catalyst in mind, index inclusion. That has not panned out yet but in a post on my blog I said that if I could get $330 or $340 for it quickly I might take it.

Last week the earnings came in and and took the stock to $340. Yesterday in the middle of our drive from Cape Reinga (the very northern tip of New Zealand) down through to the car ferry to Rawene and on to Tane Mahuta (a giant and spiritual Kauri tree) we stopped at an Internet cafe and I saw the stock print $347. Not being a knee jerk guy I thought about it a little and woke up this morning to sell the stock.

Given the totality of the situation, getting the catalyst wrong but getting my price target anyway I sold it at the open for a little over $345.

I still think good things are coming for Goog but after the big run it had in such a short period of time would anyone be shocked if the next 20 points were down??

3 comments:

Jack Miller said...

You really should consider buying back in immediately. Google Base is going to be Big, Very Big. Others (including Intuit) have offered online data bases before but none have the eyes of a free Google data base.

The posible uses are infinite. Think of EBAY, Craigslist, event calendars, sports schedules, and more and more. How many people will buy MSFT data base software if one can "blog" a data base?

The advertising revenues for magazines, videos and books when online will make current internet advertising revenues look small!

Seriously, this is one of those stocks that might go up 250 times in value. $21,000 per share is not unbelievable.

anmol said...

Googlemania.. Dude, Goog is valued at a 100 Billion right now.. If it goes up 250 times it is valued at 25 TRILLION.. Do you understand that the ENTIRE US economy is about 13 TRILLION..
Glad you posted, I think Google is a great short now..

Jack Miller said...

I made my 11th purchase of Google today. My average cost is now over $200 but the first shares are up about 400%. No one believed MSFT would go up 250 times but it did. My best stock (so far), is up 150 times (over 22 years). It can happen Dude!

In 30 years, our 13 trillon dollar economy will be an 80 trillion dollar economy. Google started at about $25 Billion and 250 times will make it a $6 trillion dollar company.

You are right, I spoke off the cuff and exaggerated, it will probably not become 7% of the whole economy. It may only go up 100 times. When United States Steel became the first billion dollar company in 1906, it was hard for people to believe but a trillion is only 1,000 billion.

The reality is that Google has the realistic possibility of becoming the MSFT of this generation (IBM of the prior generation). No other company has the infrastructure to do what Google currently does. YAHOO is the strongest competitor and is stronger in specific areas but no where close to Google in ability to catalogue and find information.

The change in the disemination of information is going to approach the change brought about by the Gutenberg Press.

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