Or other places.
That is what FOMC may have done to the US stock market with the way it managed Tuesday's announcement.
It is said that it takes six-nine months for a hike to be fully felt in the economy. Assuming that is true we are just now processing last January's hike and the action today won't come to matter until next June. There are flaws to this thought process that perhaps shorten the time increments but perhaps not, if you know what I mean.
This feeds into my idea of 2006 a being a rough year for US equities. A lot of people would say that 4.25% is a certainty in fed funds. The ten year is now at 4.28%, I bought some 23 months treasuries yesterday for a couple of clients that yield 3.87%. I believe there is now greater risk for either an inverted yield curve or a V shaped curve.
Keep in mind this has happened and the S+P 500 is at 1223. I have no trade to make right now. We are about 2% or so away from the 200 DMA. That is down a little. Long term money should be able to handle down a little. This is important to me. My exit strategy has not come into play yet. I know exactly where it does come in to play and all I have to do is be disciplined. Long time readers will know that of my many flaws as an investment manager, discipline is not one of them. How about you?
Proud Member Of
Random Roger
© 2009 | Gadget Theme Blogger Template
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
Original WPtheme By Blogger Template | Converted By Gadget Lover
| Distributed by eFree Blogger Help
5 comments:
Roger,
Most of my bond portfolio is in foreign holdings. I’ve recently lighted up a little of my stock side and for the first time in a while I have some extra cash but I don’t want to keep it in USD. Do you know of any CAD money market accounts or other ways in which I could keep this cash in CAD’s?
Jim in LV
Although I have never done business there, the first place that comes to mind would be Ever Bank (I think that is the name). You can buy short term instruments from just about any country.
Also I did some consulting once for a guy who opened a savings account at a canadian bank. I'm not sure if he had to go there but I know it was easy to do.
Hope that helps.
Overconfidence - that's my flaw, thinking I should be right even when the market signals are obvious in telling me I am wrong. An excellent post...
BTW: I have some exposure in foreign equities.
thanks Aaron
www.everbank.com
They have a neat daily currency e-mail newsletter called The Daily Pfennig written by Chuck Butler.
Post a Comment