Fizzle

I meant to touch on this yesterday, early, but I forgot. I kind of thought the early rally would fizzle, but I don't get credit for writing about it after the fact.

The reason why I think the lift fizzled is that the S+P 500 was actually up last Thursday and Friday. For all of last week, SPX was only down 22 points, hardly a meltdown.

I am surprised how much yields have gone up. In the face of Katrina, I said in a CNBC Asia interview that I thought the ten year yield would go from 4.00% to about 4.20%. The idea was just about retracement not something very clever or insightful. The ten year closed on Monday at 4.29%. I don't think nine basis points matters a whole lot but I haven't figured out whether this is more of a spike and the yield will go a little lower or if the ten year will zip right to 4.50%. 4.50% very soon would be a surprise but I suppose it is possible. It also ties into to my belief that the 30 year bond will generally result in higher rates.

On a much different note, are there any other Yahoo Mail users that have been having problems lately? Just about every enhancement they've added in the last few years is now gone. I really would love to hear about this, even if you have had no problems. Thank you!