Dollar Story

US Dollar Exchange Rates
	FX:AUDUS gtis	0.7735	0.0089	1.2%
	FX:CADUS gtis	1.2015	-0.0098	-0.8%
	FX:CHFUS gtis	1.2492	-0.0073	-0.6%
	FX:CZKUS gtis	23.6500	0.0000	0.0%
	FX:EURUS gtis	1.2434	0.0051	0.4%
	FX:GBPUS gtis	1.8074	0.0108	0.6%
	FX:HKDUS gtis	7.7686	-0.0009	0.0%
	FX:JPYUS gtis	109.9200	-0.6000	-0.5%
	FX:NOKUS gtis	6.3310	-0.0522	-0.8%
	FX:NZDUS gtis	0.7044	0.0070	1.0%
	FX:SEKUS gtis	7.4761	-0.0679	-0.9%
	FX:SGDUS gtis	1.6476	0.0019	0.1%
	FX:ZARUS gtis	6.3435	-0.0533	-0.8%

This table shows the ongoing weakness in the dollar these days. This has helped US investors of foreign companies. Oil has spiked aggressively in the last couple of days as well but it has not hurt people in other countries as their currency gets stronger oil is sort of running in place.

I have been a dollar bear for a long time, even through the spike up in the dollar in May and June. It was interesting to me to hear so many strategists make very bullish dollar calls during that time. I'm sure there were people that tried to make short moves for long term portfolios based on this commentary.

As I look at the big picture and at what I think is happening I think it is clear that the general trend for the dollar will be lower. Clients portfolios will not blow up if I am wrong, however. What do you think will happen longer term? Which currencies have increasing demand and which currencies have decreasing demand? To me, the answer is clear but I could be wrong.