Last week Michael Metz switched to being bullish from bearish, or was it the week before?
Last week, the technician from Metz' firm, Carter Worth, was on Closing Bell and Maria brought up Metz's switch. What is Worth, or anyone, supposed to say? Metz was so wrong for so long why would his now being bullish matter to anyone?
I think I first saw Metz in the mid 1990's. He was bearish back then, straight through to the recent switch. At least I believe this was the case. He was a regular back then, like now, but then disappeared for years. I have to think that if he had been bullish he would have been on more.
This episode can be constructive for anyone who manages money or handles their own portfolios. Repeat coming, the market has an up year 72% of the time. You probably want to be close to fully invested, with long term money, most of the time. I have been somewhat negative for a long time but have been 90% invested because the market had not violated any of my get defensive thresholds. I was wrong about my sentiment but that did not hurt my clients' returns. Everyone has opinions but for me being faithful to what the market is saying is more important.
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4 comments:
I don't know why you spend so much time reporting on what others have to say.
I don't give a hoot, i don't think most others on this blog do either.
I don't much care what you think either. But i do care how you are managing your clients money and why.
In the final analysis, money speaks,
not words on TV.
I am quite puzzled by this comment.
A big part of this blog is trying to empower do-it-yourselfers to be their own money managers. To that end I try to share my view and process about portfolio construction and current market events. Also, as many folks rely on various media outlets I put up posts like this one to offer ideas about sifting through some of the more useless interviews.
Furthermore, these types of posts are fun for me to do and all things being equal I would rather have fun with this than not.
This can't be said enough, the only REAL lesson that needed to be learned for all investors, retail and professional is RISK management. Unfortunately, I believe this point is more touted in Trading books than Investing books. It was certainly not practiced in my old shop, a multi billion $ mutual fund company where egos were much more important than client's money (you don't see the little guys face to face, so there is no pressure). Now the cat is out of the bag, maybe readers should think twice leaving their money with their mutual fund managers when the next down turns comes....
Grizzly makes a very important point. Ego. I have met a big wig or two in my time and ego is often a driving factor. This means client or share holder returns are not the first priority. Not good.
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