Wikinvest Wire

Monday, May 30, 2005

Vampire Mummies and the Holy Ghost....

....These are the things that terrify me the most.

Jimmy Buffet fans will know those words.

I feel this song is relevant to Sunday's well telegraphed no vote from France on the Euro Constitution. Markets anticipate and price in known information. France voting no has been known for weeks. The Euro has dropped from around 130 to just above 125 before the vote.

In Monday trade the Euro moved down a little into the mid 124's. Most, maybe not all, of the move has already occurred. The French stock market was down very slightly while most other markets in Europe were up. As further evidence that this was priced in is the action in Turkey. Turkey stands to be the most impacted because of EU accession issues. Yet after selling off at the open, Turkey rallied over 1%.

Markets price in big bad events. Remember in August 2002 what horrible things were going to happen when CEOs would have to sign off on earnings reports. This was going to cause a catastrophic sell off. Uh huh. The sell off came in May and June.

In the future there will be many other big bad events. The market will begin pricing them in as soon as the market knows about it not some drop dead date two months in the future. This is just how markets work.

1 comments:

Jack Miller said...

The no vote was a big event but the European economies are weak. Central banks may lower short rates. Short term rates in the US will attract funds and the Eurodollar may fall more.

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