Monday, December 06, 2004
I can't remember the last time I even thought about Ralph! Some of you may now him as Ralph Icanmakeupoorer. Over the years Ralph has had his share of good and bad calls. He is calling for a 20% rally in the markets between now and the end of 2005. Based on his history I don't know whether to think he is right or not. He laid out an articulate argument about the current cyclical bull market looking like a lot of others in his 40 years of reading charts. He said the current bull started in October of 2002. One thing I know he's right about even though he didn't say it this way is that the average duration of a bull market is 39 months. The current bull is 26 months old. Going out to the end of 2005 makes 39 months. That the current bull market would end right at the same duration as the average bull market length seems overly simplistic to me.
Posted by Roger Nusbaum at 4:17 PM