On Wednesday morning's Asian Squawk Box perma-bear Michael Metz from Oppenheimer came on to spread his usual cheer.
If you don't know Mr. Metz he was a regular on the TV circuit in the mid 1990's sounding the alarm that equities were overvalued. That may or may not have been true but the S+P 500 doubled in his face and he disappeared from the air waves. I thought he lost his job, but I was wrong and he surfaced again in the last couple of years to bring his dour message to new market participants.
In today's interview I realized that I have some opinions in common with him. Uh-oh. The reason this concerns me is that no matter what is going on in the world he comes up with the same gloomy outlook. What I learned from this little epiphany is that is important to not let emotions color your decisions, which is something I think I do very well. At some point the market will have an unambiguous rally like in 2003. Successful participation in that rally, whether it comes in two weeks or five years will require objective analysis of the facts at hand at that time. I have done a decent job be out in front of big changes in capital markets for the last couple of years which means very little. Despite my gut about US equities I remain invested and faithful that my exit strategy, a breach of the 200 DMA, is the best course of action to take for my clients.
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4 comments:
This comment is for whoever wrote the references to Michael Metz and his perpetual bearishness. First, you are focusing on one short period in history. Second, you are incorrect that Mike was bearish for a decade and finally you don't have any clue what he has accomplished prior to the mid 90's.
I worked with Mike Metz at Oppenheimer for 12 years and he was personally responsible for me becoming a wealthy man.
Along with Norm Wanger they revolutionized the way to buy businesses through the paper market and participated not only in many value plays that came to fuition, but many a leveraged buyout.
Mikes personal fortune grew to a rumored 50 million + when I left Oppenheimer and that was over 10 years ago.
I wonder what it is that you have accomplished.
thanks for stopping by. This post is a year and half old, it must have taken some work to find it.
i never said he was bearish for a decade. he was bearish as the market wsa starting to lift off and then dissapeared from TV, I really did think he lost his job.
Your are correct that I do not know anything about him from the 1980s or whenever you are talking about.
People listening to him in the time period I cited have been exposed to a guy that seems to have been wrong more often, at least publicly, than he has been right.
As he became chief strategists at a brokerage firm he clearly accomplished more than I have so far.
Well I guess Michael had the last laugh after all he was brilliant!!
We got a taste of the deriviative
destruction that he had been warning about for years. Looks like we may get front row seats as the next bubble builds how long will the next colapse take? I hope I get out sooner this time.
I wish he was still here to guide
us I miss his voice, may he rest in peace. JLC Denver CO
I worked with Mike at OPCO for 5 years. He was a permabear. Yet he had special situation names he was always recommending. These names were based on a deep value perspective. Imagine listening to Metz and Henry Blodget (He was the OPCO internet analyst). You could not find two greater polar opposites. Metz of course prevailed as tech names and expectations crumbled. Bottom line. A sell side institution sells to its clients. If you have a bear and bull hawking wares you have a twice as good a chance of getting an order. Value guys like Mike are like the guys at Blaupost...boring but effective. He is missed.
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