This morning on Squawk Box was a guest named David Greenlaw who is some sort of strategist for Morgan Stanley. He is bullish on the US markets and economy for 2005 and 2006. What makes this post worthy news is that he works at the same firm as Stephen Roach who says the US only has a 10% chance of avoiding financial armageddon. So if you are a client of Morgan Stanley who are you to believe? If you are a client of Morgan Stanley are you relying on who your broker or trader believes? That a big brokerage firm would have multiple opinions is not new but it puts individuals who try to be hands on in a difficult position. Do Greenlaw's opinions completely dismiss Roach's work? This is just strange and it is reasonable for anyone to wonder why they should listen to anything Morgan Stanley has to say. Maybe it's just me?
It looks like John Snow's days as treasury secretary are numbered. A leading candidate is white house chief of staff Andrew Card with Phil Graham as a close second. Bush's track record for making good picks is very bad. While I am no Clinton guy, one of the big reasons that history will look favorably on his presidency is some of the action taken by Robert Rubin. Mr. Bush, I am begging you to find a Wall Street guy to do the job. It will go a long way to improving your legacy. Phil Graham is close, he has a PHD in economics, but a Wall Street guy will be better. I can't be the only one that sees this?
On November 11 I wrote a piece about how to capture investing in Africa. There were only two options, the iShares South Africa (EZA) and the South Africa Fund (SOA). The mea culpa is that the shareholders of SOA approved a liquidation of the shares at $22.86349 per share. It never occurred to me to look for news of a liquidation vote. How often does that even happen? Either way it did happen and I was not aware of it when I wrote the article. My apologies.
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2 comments:
Roger
Great evaluation of some of the macro issues facing the economy. I understand the dollar has been declining in the face of the massive trade and budget deficits that we have been running. Frequently, the seriousness of this issue is expressed by quoting the current account deficit as a % of GDP (6% currently, I believe). I know what the current account deficit is and I know what GDP is. This may seem like a stupid question, but why is it relevant to compare the current account deficit to GDP? Thx. Parkite
Random Roger-- Starting in 01 with his Double dip prediction, Id say Roach is now 0 for his last 10, and yet every time the man farts it is taken as the gospel.
Where is Abby Joseph when you need her.
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