Various Market Observations

True to my previous posts I began to commit more capital to the equity markets this morning. My plan coming into the day was to buy before the fed announcement if the market was down or buy after if the market was up. So what happened? SPX up slightly and the Nasdaq down several points. I bought two tech names and one health name that has some beta. I will buy some more tomorrow.

The market is clearly taking Cisco's earnings report badly. Meeting the estimate is a miss based on Cisco's track record. While numbers across the report were good they did show some slowing. This combined with the comments out about semi conductor cap equipment stocks is a fundamental headwind for many areas of tech. Tread carefully.

Despite the consensus I like the way the S+P 500 is working off last week's election reaction. This is a nice consolidation after last week's strong move.

I am not sure what the Fed will say coming out of the meeting for future hikes. Whether they skip a hike next meeting is inconsequential. It seems clear to me they are moving to neutral from accommodative policy. What should be of more concern is what level is neutral? Neutral has usually meant 3.5%-4.5% or so. I think this time around it will be a lower range, say 2.5%-3.25%, unless the dollar trades lower than anyone expects.